Dynamics of production and export of spices from India: A Markov chain approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25081/josac.2026.v35.i1.10142Keywords:
Spices, Export, Markov chain, Growth, Instability, MarketAbstract
India is known as the spice bowl of the world as other country produces many varieties of spices as India and also India has larger production and export potentiality of spices in the world. The present study examines the growth and instability as well as direction of trade of spices export from India to different destinations. The study utilizes CAGR and Markov chain analysis to calculate growth rate and the transitional probability matrices for all major spices to determine the direction of spices export from India. The study revealed that in India area, production and productivity has a significant positive growth rate of 3.26, 6.68, and 3.31 per cent, respectively. The “Others” were the most reliable importer of spices from India with a retention probability of 78.00 per cent, followed by Sri Lanka with 44.00 per cent, China and Nepal as a retention probability of 42.00 each.
Downloads
References
Anantha V P B & Sidana B K 2019 Economic analysis of export performance of major Indian spices. International Research Journal of Agricultural Economics and Statistics,10(2):302-310
Anonymous 2022 Spices Board of India Annual Report 2023-24. Retrieved on 20/4/25 from https://www.indianspices.com/sites/default/files/Spice%20Annual%20Report%202023-24%20-%20Final%20with%20Cover%20(1).pdf.
APEDA. 2023. Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GoI. Retrieved 30 Sept. 2020, from http://www.apeda.gov.in/apedawebsite/index.html
Cuddy J D A & Della-Valle P A 1978 Measuring the instability of time series data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 40(1): 79-85.
Devi G & Jadav K S 2018 Growth performance in area, production, productivity and export of spices in India. Acta Scientific Agriculture, 2(11): 87-90.
Joshi D, Rai A & Verma M 2015 Stability analysis of Indian spices export – a Markov chain approach. Economic Affairs, 60(2): 257-262.
Lal C, Jakhar B, Kait R, Pruthi S & Kumar V 2024 Economics and Marketing of Selected Spices and Traditional Crops: Insights into Farmers from Haryana, India. Problems of Agricultural Economics, 379(2): 73-100.
Naik W N & Hosamani S B 2013 Direction of trade and export performance of turmeric in India: A Markov chain approach. Karnataka Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 26(1): 90-93.
Sebastian J & Praveen K V 2019 Performance and prospects of spice trade in India: an economic analysis. Journal of Crop and Weed, 15(2): 01-08.
Sihmar R 2014 Growth and instability in agricultural production Haryana: A district level analysis. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 4(7): 1-12.
Singh B & Solanki R K 2015 Status of seed spices research and development in India. The Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 85(2): 151-156.
Sivasankari B & Rajesh R 2014 A study on growth and direction of black pepper trade in India – a Markov chain approach. Trends in Biosciences, 7: 3200–3205.
Spices Board of India 2025 Annual Report 2023-24. Retrieved on 20/4/25 from https://www.indianspices.com/sites/default/files/Spice%20Annual%20Report%202023-24%20-%20Final%20with%20Cover%20(1).pdf
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2026 D Nagesh, J Prashanth, B R Manohar
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
.