Forecasting Major Food Crops Production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,Pakistan

Abstract

The present study was undertaken to investigate forecasting of major food crops production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study was based on secondary data covers a period of about 30 years i.e. starting from 1984-85 to 2013-14, whereas, ARIMA modeling has been employed to fit the best time series model for major food crops production i.e. wheat, maize, sugarcane and rice. It reveals through the results that for major food crops production, the time series models which were found to be most suitable are as ARIMA (0, 2, 1), ARIMA (1, 2, 3), ARIMA (0, 2, 1) and random model ARIMA (0, 1, 0) respectively based on forecast evaluation criteria. It was concluded from the results of analyzed data that time series models were found adequate for forecasting major food crops production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.