A Stochastic Model for Mean Time to Seroconversion of HIV Transmission with Change of Threshold Under Correlated Intercontact Times

Abstract

This paper focuses on the study of a stochastic model for predicting seroconvesion time of HIV transmission with change of threshold under correlated intercontact times. The antigenic diversity threshold is an important aspect of consideration in the studies relating to HIV infection.  Successive sexual contacts are the mode of transmission of HIV would result in acquiring more of HIV which contribute to the antigenic diversity of the antigen. As and when the cumulative antigenic diversity contributed due to successive contacts crosses the antigenic diversity threshold, seroconversion takes place. In developing this model the result of Gurland (1955) has been used. The mean time to seroconversion and its variance are derived and the numerical illustrations are provided.