Global and regional dynamics of coffee production: a comparative growth and decomposition analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25081/jpc.2026.v54.i2.10125Abstract
Coffee is a globally traded and economically vital agricultural commodity supporting millions of smallholder farmers. While extensive country-specific literature exists, a comprehensive comparative evaluation using growth and decomposition frameworks across major global and Indian states has remained missing. This study analyzes the growth performance of coffee area, production, and productivity across major producing countries and Indian states while identifying key structural shifts. Utilizing secondary data from FAOSTAT and the Coffee Board of India (1995-2024), the study applies an exponential growth model to calculate Compound Annual Growth Rates and a decomposition model to measure the effects of area, yield, and their interactions. Key findings reveal that Brazil's production growth was driven primarily by productivity improvements (95%), whereas Vietnam's growth was propelled by substantial area expansion (60%). Nationally, India's production increased despite declining yields, mainly supported by area expansion and geographic shifts toward robusta and non-traditional regions. Regionally, Karnataka's growth relied on area expansion and high-yielding varieties, while Kerala's growth was overwhelmingly led by yield optimization (97%). These insights provide critical guidance for policymakers and stakeholders to enhance the economic viability and climate resilience of the global coffee sector through targeted agronomic and climate-smart adaptations.
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