Rainfall variability and coconut production dynamics in Eastern Visayas, Philippines: A spatiotemporal analysis using panel data (2010-2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25081/jpc.2026.v54.i2.10112Abstract
This study examined spatiotemporal patterns of coconut production and their association with rainfall across six provinces of Eastern Visayas, Philippines, from 2010 to 2025. A balanced provincial panel (6 provinces × 16 years; N=96) was analyzed using Mann–Kendall trend tests with Sen's slope, a province fixed-effects regression of yield on bearing-tree density and one-year-lagged annual rainfall, and an area–yield–interaction decomposition. Production declined in five of six provinces, but no production trend remained significant after correction for serial autocorrelation. Annual rainfall showed no monotonic trend in any province, which does not show that rainfall was stable. Bearing-tree density and province accounted for 84.3% of the variance in yield, mostly between provinces. One-year-lagged rainfall added 0.008 to R² (p = .034) but was only narrowly significant under a wild cluster bootstrap (p = .043), and density was not (p = .193); residuals were serially correlated, so conventional p-values are likely too small. Yield change was the larger component of production change in four of six provinces. These are associations from a short observational panel, not causal effects; finer rainfall indicators and typhoon, replanting and management data are needed.
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