Tea exports from India: Growth patterns, market stability, transition dynamics and future outlook

Abstract

This study analysed the growth performance, instability, changing export patterns of Indian tea over a last 20 years period and export projections for next five years. The secondary data sourced from the UN Comtrade was collected for the study purpose. The findings of the analysis revealed that the export of tea from India experienced a significant and positive growth trend at 1 per cent level of significance. The instability index for export value was lower than that of the export quantity suggesting that export earnings were relatively more stable compared to the fluctuations observed in export volumes.  In terms of stability of export destinations, Iraq was identified as most stable country in importing tea from India with the highest retention of India’s tea export share followed by Russia, countries aggregated ‘others’ category, Iran and UAE. On the other hand, the USA was found to be the least stable country indicating poor retention of trade share and limited reliability for sustained tea exports. Indian tea export projections indicated positive trends in Russia, Iran and the countries pooled under the category ‘others’ reflecting strengthening market potential in these destinations.