Forecasting milk production in Tamilnadu

Authors

  • T Jai Sankar Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli – 620 024, Tamilnadu, India.
  • R Prabakaran Vice-Chancellor, Tamilnadu Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chennai – 600 051, Tamilnadu, India.

Keywords:

Milk production, Normalized BIC, forecasting, ARIMA.

Abstract

Tamilnadu, with a daily milk production of 145.88 lakh litres, is one of the leading states in milk production in India. And the Tamilnadu milk cooperatives play a major role in the development dairy within the state. This study aims at forecasting milk production in Tamilnadu, based on data on milk production during the years from 1978 to 2008. The study considered Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) processes to select the appropriate stochastic model for forecasting milk production in Tamilnadu. Based on ARIMA (p, d, q) and its components ACF, PACF, Normalized BIC, Box-Ljung Q statistics and residuals estimated, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was selected. Based on the chosen model, it could be predicted that the milk production would increase to 7.15 million tons in 2015 from 5.96 million tons in 2008 in Tamilnadu.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

T Jai Sankar, Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli – 620 024, Tamilnadu, India.

Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli – 620 024, Tamilnadu, India.

R Prabakaran, Vice-Chancellor, Tamilnadu Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chennai – 600 051, Tamilnadu, India.

Vice-Chancellor, Tamilnadu Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chennai – 600 051, Tamilnadu, India.

Published

21-01-2012

How to Cite

Sankar, T. J., and R. Prabakaran. “Forecasting Milk Production in Tamilnadu”. International Multidisciplinary Research Journal, vol. 2, no. 1, Jan. 2012, https://updatepublishing.com/journal/index.php/imrj/article/view/1538.

Issue

Section

Research Articles